Player Profile

Thanks to a three hour car ride (one way) for Easter weekend, I have plenty of time to express my thoughts on the Cardinals. Let's go through each position and look at each player.

Catcher:
Yadier Molina: After signing a mega deal in the offseason, Yadi is showing his worth early in the season. He set a career high in home runs (and RBI's) last season, and he's already homered once in the two games so far. His defense has been superb, although he did allow a batter to reach on a dropped third strike. Outside of statistics, Yadi looks like he's in great shape. I know it's not saying much, but watching him running the bases, he is running faster than ever before. I'm expecting great things from the Puerto Rican.

First base:
Lance Berkman: The Big Puma had a great year last season to defy critics who said that his career was over. And he's out to prove himself again this year. Through the first two games, Berkman is hitting a solid .333 with one RBI and two doubles. One of the biggest reasons for Berkman's success last year was how healthy and in shape he was. You could tell he was in great shape after his first at-bat of the year when he stretched a single into a double, thanks to great hustle and some fancy sliding. Of course, one of the Puma's strengths is getting on base. In each of the first two games, he's walked twice. That's a .600 on-base percentage, folks.

Second base:
Daniel Descalso: Take note that I put Descalso ahead of Tyler Greene on the second base list. Through the first two games, Double D has had 9 plate appearances. Comparatively, Tyler Greene has had zero. Considered the under bird to win the second base job at the beginning of spring training, Descalso has been rewarded for his hard work with the first two starts of the season. He's hitting the ball well, and as always, his defense is amazing. I think Descalso has better knowledge of baseball and different situations than Tyler Greene, which will help him earn his spot in the lineup during high pressure situations. That's the reason why Nick Punto started at second base during the World Series.

Tyler Greene: Well, it's hard to comment on a player who hasn't seen any action yet. Still, there is plenty to discuss when it comes to the former first round draft pick. No one is doubting TG's potential. He's had occasional power in the minor leagues which could lead to double digit home runs in the majors if he ever gets the chance and adjusts to major league pitching. Tyler is also a great base stealer. For some players (such as Jon Jay and Colby Rasmus), there speed doesn't translate in stolen bases. That's not the case for Greene who has 16 career stolen bases and no caught stealing. And with Matheny who is encouraging stealing bases this season behind the helm, Greene could really shine in he can get on base. He has a .219 career batting average in the majors (.270 in minors).

Shortstop:
Rafael Furcal: Furcal struggled for much of spring training, but he kicked it in gear once the games (and stats) count. Through the first two games, he has a .600 batting average, 2 RBI's and 2 stolen bases. The Cardinals need Furcal to be a leadoff hitter for them this year. They need guys to get on ahead of the big boppers and since Beltran is hitting second, Furcal's ability to consistently get on base is critical to the Cardinals' success.

Third base:
David Freese: After becoming a postseason legend, David Freese is out to prove that he wasn't a 18 game wonder. So far he's hitting a whopping .500 with 5 RBI's and one home run. If he can keep that up for the rest of the season, he will hit 81 home runs and drive in 530 runs…. More realistically, Freese should be aiming for the .300/25/100 (average/homers/RBI's) mark. He should also be trying to reach 150 games played for once in his career. Through the first two games, pitchers have shown that they would rather pitch to Freese with runners on first and second than Berkman with a runner on second. This will give Freese a lot of RBI opportunities during the season.

Matt Carpenter: Carpenter didn't make the team because they needed a backup third baseman (Greene and Descalso can play third), he made the big league club for the first time because he can hit. He proved that in his first at-bat when he doubled into right center to drive in two runs. If Freese goes down with another injury, the Cardinals should be in good hands with the newest Carp.

Outfield:
Matt Holliday: The simple truth is that if Holliday is healthy, he will produce. He hasn't quite had his swing back to start the season (striking out four times through two games), but there is no need to worry. He should be a lock for a .300/25/100 mark.

Jon Jay: Through the first two games, Jay's defense has been great. If he keeps it up, he could win a Gold Glove some day. Offensively, Jay makes contact and has occasional power. Look for him to hit just over .300 with 10-15 homers.

Carlos Beltran: Beltran has come out of the gates racking in his first two games as a Cardinal. He's got a .444 batting average with a home run, RBI, stolen base, and 3 runs scored. If he remains in the two hole for much of the year, he could wind up with close to 100 runs scored. Having his .400 career on-base percentage in front of Holliday, Berkman, and Freese will bring in a lot of runs over the course of 162 games.

Eric Komatsu: A Rule 5 draft pick Washington, Komatsu made the big league club knowing that if he didn't he would be sent back to Washington. I saw Komatsu start in a spring training game this spring and after watching him get his first big league hit, I can say I'm surprised Washington didn't protect the former first round draft pick. He has a lot of skill that I think could get him a lot of at-bats for the Cardinals this year.

Shane Robinson: The Cardinals have been wanting a right handed hitting center fielder to back up their lefties (Jay and Schumaker). This is why Robinson was able to make the club out of spring training for the first time in his career He is a great defensive player and has good speed. However, he's not much of a power hitter, but he can occasionally send one to the wall.


Starting Pitchers:
Adam Wainwright: Obviously a 0-6 loss to the Brewers was not the way Wainwright wanted to start the season after going undefeated in Spring Training. However, I still believe that Wainwright will have an outstanding year, despite concerns about his health. His innings pitched probably won't be north of 200, but the innings he does pitch he will pitch well.

Jaime Garcia: If you just looked at the box score for his first start, you'd think he pitched well. However, if you watched him pitch, you would know that he was skating on thin ice for the majority of the game. He had no control of his pitches, leaving them many up in the strike zone, but he was fortunate not to be crushed. However, this is the kind of start that aces give you; even when they don't have their stuff working, they still go out there and give you a quality start.

Kyle Lohse: A lot of Cardinal fans don't like Lohse because for the first two years of his four year 41 million dollar contract, he spent the majority of the seasons on the disabled list and when he was pitching he was pitching poorly. Another reason for fans' dislike of him is that he tends to have poor body language when things start to go bad. However, personal biases aside, Lohse is a lot better pitcher than many people give him credit for, when healthy that is. In the past two seasons, he has allowed 2 stolen bases. He is also one of the league leaders for fewest pitches per inning. His Opening Day start was a great example of him getting on a role and mowing the offense down quickly.

Jake Westbrook: After probably his worst season in the majors, Westbrook seems primed to have a bounce back season. He reported to camp in great shape (20 pounds lighter) and has had a terrific spring. His great spring can also be attributed to the slight change in his windup as he adjusted more towards the delivery of 2010 which was different in 2011. I am expecting a great year from Westbrook this season.

Lance Lynn: A lot of fans probably just know Lance Lynn from his great work out of the bullpen during their historic run to win the championship. What they might not know is that Lynn was slated as a future top-of-the-rotation starter during his minor league days. He has a full four pitch arsenal (fastball, curveball, slider, change up) and he is a durable starter. He could be right along with Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller as the team's aces in 3 years. Lynn could make a case to stay in the rotation once Carpenter comes back from rehab.

Relief Pitchers:
J.C. Romero: Romero is a step up from most of the lefty reliever in the past (Reyes, Villone), but he can struggle at times. He probably won't pitch against righties during high pressure situations which is fine because of the depth of their righty relievers.

Marc Rzepczynski: I was very impressed with Scrabble once he came over from north of the border. I think he's been the best lefty reliever for the Cardinals in the past decade, excluding Trever Miller's 2009 campaign. Mozeliak can invasion using him as a starter if necessary, but I think he is too valuable of a tool in the bullpen to be put into the rotation.

Mitchell Boggs: Boggs is a different pitcher than the young hard throwing starter that struggled to get through five innings. As a reliever, he has boosted velocity on his fastball and has added sharper movement to his slider. I still have faith that Boggs can absolutely dominate hitters on a consistent basis. I think that when the new manager and pitching coach that he will give himself a clean slate to start with.

Kyle McClellan: There were trade rumors during the offseason that McClellan could be dealt to make some room on the payroll for Roy Oswalt. However, a deal couldn't be made and the Cardinals have the experienced righty for another year. In 2010, McClellan was one of the most dominate right-handed relievers. However, in 2011 he took a step backward as he became a full time starter. I think it was a great move to not pursuing the overpriced Oswalt and instead keeping a valuable reliever.

Fernando Salas: Salas was the closer for the majority of the 2011 season, but lost it to Motte in September. While he was effective as a closer, I don't feel that he's cut out for that role. Salas has three quality pitches (2 seam fastball, slurve, and circle change), but he doesn't the ability to dominate pitch. He lacks the ability to mow down hitters. Motte, Sanchez, and Boggs can all completely dominate an at-bat. Thus, I think Salas is more cut out for the eight inning role instead of the ninth.

Jason Motte: Motte has really evolved as a pitcher since 2009. When he first came up, he just threw it as hard as he could without concern of where it ended up. That got him a lot of strikeouts, but a lot of walks and home runs as well. In 2010, he changed from throwing a straight four seam to throwing three miles per hour slower but with two seam action. That brought his walk and home run rate down, but it also brought down his strikeout rate. In 2011, he went back to the four seam fastball, but he located it very well and had a high strikeout rate with few walks and home runs. He should run away with the closer job this season.

Even though these players aren't on the major league roster, they still deserve a look at.
First base:
Matt Adams: You may not have heard of this young lefty, but you will be as inches closer to St. Louis. Adams was not a big name when he was drafted (in the 9th round), but then again, neither was Albert. In his 2 seasons in the minors, Adams has a better than .900 OPS. Any player with a .900 OPS is a lock for an All Star selection. Think of him as a slimmer Prince Fielder. He has tremendous power, but we don't know if his .300 batting average will hold up against major league pitching. Matt Adams is the reason that I believe that letting Albert sign with the Angels was a smart move.

Starting Pitcher:
Shelby Miller: I probably won't tell you anything that you don't already know about Shelby. A former first round has flown through the system with success that spells "future ace". Being drafted in the first round is the first of many steps to being a super star. The next step is to be successful and get better in the minor leagues. Miller has definitely done that. He will start the season at Triple-A Memphis, and will likely make his debut sometime this year, and it will not be out of the bullpen.

Relief Pitcher:
Eduardo Sanchez: Sanchez was lights out with a towel under the door when he first came up to the bigs. He had a well over 15 K/9 after the first two weeks in the majors. That slowed down, but he is still a very effective reliever. Think of him as a young K-Rod with hopefully a better control of his emotions and personality.

Spoiler Alert

For the second game in a row, the Cardinals ruined the home opener for the opposing team. The Brewers appeared to be coming out of the gate firing when Carlos Gomez tripled in Rickie Weeks on the second at-bat of the bottom of the first. But that lead didn't hold up...

St. Louis: 11 Winning Pitcher: Jaime Garcia (1-0)
Milwaukee: 5 Losing Pitcher: Yovanni Gallardo (0-1)

RBI's:
Carlos Gomez (1)
Aramis Ramirez (1)
George Kottaras 3 (3)

Yadier Molina (1)
Carlos Beltran (1)
Matt Holliday (1)
David Freese 3 (5)
Matt Carpenter 2 (2)
Shane Robinson (1)
Rafael Furcal (2)

Home Runs:
George Kottaras (1)

Yadier Molina (1)
Carlos Beltran (1)
Matt Holliday (1)
David Freese (1)

Player of the Game:
David Freese
Stats: 2-5, 1 1B, HR, 1 Run, 3 RBI's
Summary:
Freese came through big with Berkman on first after Holliday and Beltran went back-to-back. His home run was the longest one of the game. Freese also came through with a hard single into center in his next at-bat with runners on the corners and two outs. He's proven in the two games so far that his heroic clutch hits last postseason were a sign of yet to come and not just a fluke.

Summary of the Game:
Jaime appeared the whole game like he never had his stuff working. He fanned only three while walking two. However, he worked through his mechanical problems and earned a quality start as well as a victory. Hopefully he can locate and get consistent movement on his pitches his next time out.

Out of the bullpen, J.C. Romero gave up two line drive singles to the only two hitters faced. Not a good sign. But thanks to some fancy ground balls induced by Mitchell Boggs, no runs were added to Romero's resumé. Mitchell was rewarded after getting three clutch outs with two runners on by being sent out to the next inning. He gave up a lead off single the next inning, but also struck out two batters to strand the runner at first. If you just look at the box score for Kyle McClellan, you will see that he allowed three runs in one inning. What the box score won't tell you is that one of the runners reached base on a strikeout. McClellan's great curveball bounced in the dirt and Yadi blocked it, but he thought it went to his left but the ball reflected off of his chest protector toward his right. The second runner reach base on a hit by pitch. McClellan was up 1-2 and threw an inside curveball which didn't break and softly hit him in the shoulders. The next batter, George Kottaras, hit a home run to deep center.

Offensively, every hitter contributed. Literally, every position player got at least one hit, and every starter besides Descalso scored a run. No one had a four hit game, but everyone hit.....and the Brewers gave up seven walks. Shane Robinson, Eric Komatsu, and Matt Carpenter all came off the bench and got pinch hit hits. Carpenter's was a 2 RBI double into right center field. It was a great opportunity for Matheny to watch the young guys get major league at-bats.

Game 2 of 162
Record: 2-0

Opening Day

St Louis Cardinals: 4 Winning Pitcher: Kyle Lohse (1-0) Save: Jason Motte (1)
Miami Marlins: 1 Losing Pitcher: Josh Johnson (0-1)

RBIs:
Gaby Sanchez 1 (1)
David Freese 2 (2)
Rafael Furcal 1 (1)
Daniel Descalso 1 (1)

Player of the Game: Kyle Lohse
Stats:
7.1 IP, 2 hits, 1 (earned) run, 0 walks, 3 strikeouts

Summary:
Lohse was the story of the Opening Day. He took a No-Hitter into the seventh inning until Jose Reyes singled to start off the inning, but the Marlins first rally led to nothing. In the eight inning, however, the Marlins got a break. With no outs, Logan Morrison singled on a one hopper of the right field wall. Next up, Gaby Sanchez struck out. Matheny decided to end Lohse's night on a positive note. So he brought in Fernando Salas. On Salas' first pitch, Omar Infante hit a one hopper to second baseman Daniel Descalso who threw to shortstop Rafael Furcal who threw a one hopper to Lance Berkman for the double play. Unfortunately, Infante was called safe at first base even though the replay clearly showed the ball beat him to first base. The next batter, John Buck, doubled into the right center gap to score the Marlins' only run.

Summary of the Game:
Josh Johnson started the season strong by getting lead off hitter Rafael Furcal to ground out on a 1-2 count. But Carlos Beltran singled on a single to right field. Matt Holliday hit a high pop out to the right fielder. With two outs, cleanup hitter Lance Berkman hit a liner in-between the left and center fielders. Beltran coasted into third but the Big Puma was hustling into second base. Thanks to some fancy sliding at second, Berkman was safe for a double. But they still needed the key hit to bring the runners in. With two outs and a 2-2 count, David Freese singled into left field, scoring both runs.

In the bottom of the second, Furcal singled in Daniel Descalso after Lohse sacrificed him over to second. There were 1-2-3 innings for the next three innings until Furcal led off the fifth with a single. Beltran struck out on a failed hit 'n run, but Furcal made it in safely to second. Holliday struck out and Berkman was intentionally walked. Freese struck out to end the inning.

Quiet baseball loomed until the top of the eight when Daniel Descalso brought in David Freese from third on a ground ball to the pitcher. The bottom of the eight is when the Marlins finally scored on John Buck's RBI double off of Fernando Salas. The Cardinals failed to score in the top of the ninth, which allowed Jason Motte to come in for the save. He gave up a lead off single, but worked around it with a ground ball and back to back strikeouts to end the game.

Game 1 of 162
Record: 1-0

Mike Matheny

12 year veteran, 5 time Cardinal, and 4 time Gold Glove winner Mike Matheny will have butterflies for the first time on Opening Day in many years. Long gone are the days were he was a young gun behind the plate for the Milwaukee Brewers. Even the days that he mentored to current Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina are even in the distant past. The 44 year-old Ohioan will make his major league debut tonight, but this time as a manager.

Even though Matheny has zero experience in a managerial role at any level, professional or not, he seems to be a perfect fit for the Cardinals. The first plus for Matheny is that he is already very familiar with the organization. As mentioned earlier, he spent five years with the Cardinals as a player. During the Cardinals' historic 2011 campaign, Matheny spent the whole season by John Mozeliak's side as the Assistant General Manager. Over the past few springs, Matheny has attended spring training as a special instructor to catchers. He knows the organization, he knows their philosophy. He knows the players, he knows the coaches, the front office personnel, he knows everybody. The second plus is his integrity. As a player, Matheny was known as one of the most integral player in all of baseball. His personality transferred as an instructor, it transferred as a front office executive, and it appears to being transferring as a manager. Through spring training, his players have had nothing but good things to say about their new manager. A common theme among their comments is that he knows the game very well because he played in the same era as all of them, he connects very well with the players who aren't intimidated to share their feelings with him, but he also can take charge and do his job of managing them and tell them what they're doing wrong.

Matheny has big shoes to fill. Tony La Russa managed the Cardinals for 16 years. He also won 2 World Series in the past 6 years which is more than any other club during that time period. With that in mind, Matheny could do very well for the Cardinals. There are three factors for a manager to stay with the same organization for a long period of time. The first one is that he needs to be successful. (This one is still yet to be determined for Matheny) The second one is that he needs to know the game extremely well and be able to adapt as the game changes. (Matheny did that as a player as is evident by his best offensive season which came when he was 35) The third factor is that he has to be a great fit for the organization. There couldn't be a much more perfect fit for the Cardinals than Matheny.

So whether or not Matheny will be a good manager for the Cardinals remains to be seen. However, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about the new man at the helm.

Tyler Greene vs. Daniel Descalso

This was one of the biggest questions going into the spring, and it could continue into the regular season. The battle for the second base job was Tyler Greene's to lose entering into the spring. However, he hasn't been overly impressive and Descalso has had a solid spring. There are pro's and con's to each player. So let's take a look at them.

Tyler Greene
Primary position: Shortstop
Age: 28
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Strengths: Legitimate major league base stealer (16 for 16 in ML career)
Power potential (16 minor league homers per 450 at-bats)
Defense (he can make the spectacular plays, but he will also make errors)

Weaknesses: Batting average (his .270 career minor league average hasn't translated to the majors)
Track record (he has proven he has potential in the minors, but he hasn't done squat in the majors)

Daniel Descalso
Primary position: Third Base
Age: 25
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Strengths: Defense (he was ranked third in Gold Glove in '11 even though he only played 66 games at third)
Clutch hitter (.345 average in Late/Close games, half of his RBI's came with 2 outs)
Track Record (hit .298 after his first two months in the big leagues)

Weaknesses: What you see it what you get (he's not going to hit homers or steal bases)
Second half drop (2 RBI's in 76 at-bats in August and September; 11 RBI's in 85 at-bats in May)


My take: Tyler Greene obviously has a higher ceiling than Daniel Descalso. I think that Greene could hit 15-20 home runs and swipe 25-35 bases if he ever reaches his prime. Descalso, on the other hand, is a safer option because he remained on the major league roster the entire 162 game season. However, I feel that Descalso is most valuable as a utility player and late game replacement (whether it be on defense of Freese or as a pinch hitter in a clutch situation). With that being said, I would give the bulk of the at-bats to Tyler Greene. If he doesn't produce however, I wouldn't hesitate to let Descalso take over.

9-6 Win over Boston

In day 1 of my vacation in Florida, I had the pleasure of attending my first Spring Training game. It was an action filled game. It started off with entering a great facility in the Red Sox's brand new stadium, JetBlue II. It lived up to the hype given by former Cardinals beat writer Matthew Leach after his visit earlier this spring.

Now time for the action. The Cardinals Minor League Hitter of the Year, Matt Adams, put on a show during batting practice. Every ball he hit was a double into the gap. No joke. That guy can rake the ball. I'm starting to see that not signing Albert Pujols to a 10 year deal was a good idea. It would kinda blocked a future MVP candidate. Adams should be the Cards starting first baseman in 2013, assuming that Berkman retires after this season.

Pitching wise, Lohse threw a solid 3 innings. His box score lines will be misleading because of McDonalds's one swing that brought in two of the three runs that were scored that inning. J.C. Romero and Marc Rzepczynski both had rough outings. Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan both had their stuff working though.

Throughout the lineup, no one had a great offensive game, but with timely hitting they produced 9 runs. A third of those came Shane Robinson's pinch hit, bases loaded triple. The outfielders were playing pretty shallow, but that came back to haunt them as Robinson plugged one into center field. It hit off the base of the 375 feet sign on the mini Green Monster.

Earlier in the game, there was a 20 minute rain delay with Matt Adams at the plate. The count was 1-0 when it was called. After play resumed, the same pitcher came out and threw another ball. I had a feeling that Adams was going to put a charge into a pitch after the pitcher had been still for 20 minutes. On the next pitch, my intuition was proven correct as Adams cranked a solo homer to right field. The ball flew approximately 390 feet. It was a no-doubter right after the crack of the bat. Adams later had a RBI single on a sharp grounder past the first baseman.

The Cardinals played solid defense, turning two double plays. Outside of Freeman's three walks, they pitched solidly too. Their pinch hitters (Shane Robinson and Oscar Tavares) were 2-2 with 2 runs and 4 RBI's. They did the little things right and came out on top. The Red Sox, on the other hand, had plenty of blunders. Bard overthrew second on a pickoff attempt, former Redbird Nick Punto was in the way of Matt Carpenter during Komatsu's hit 'n run RBI double in the second inning, Youkilis and Punto both missed ground balls that could have been made but were scored as hits.

Long story short, I liked what I saw from the Cardinals today. Going to watch the Twins take on the Orioles tomorrow. On Saturday, we'll see the Twins again. To conclude the vacation, we're going to watch the Cardinals play the revamped Miami Marlins on Sunday. More coverage tomorrow.

Tommy John surgery

I wrote this argument for my writing class at college and thought it would ease your mind about Wainwright's situation.

Today I am going to prove to you that the performance of pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery is affected very little by it. The surgery was first done on Tommy John in 1974. He was a starting pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers. When pitchers hear that they are going to need to have Tommy John surgery, they get the same feeling like when a person first hears that they have cancer. Jake Westbrook of the St. Louis Cardinals said as of the surgery, "(After rehabbing for 15 months) I know full well that rehab isn't only a physically exhausting process, but it's also a mentally exhausting one."

The first player that I'm going to analyze is Chris Carpenter, also of the St. Louis Cardinals. Carpenter played 9 seasons before he had Tommy John surgery. In that time he established himself as a great pitcher. He earned the Cy Young award (given to the best pitcher in each league) the year before he had the surgery. He was almost 32 when he had the surgery. Carpenter was out of the game for almost two full years after having Tommy John surgery. Here are the average stats of the three seasons before he had Tommy John surgery compared to the average of the three seasons after the surgery.

Before
31 starts, 215 Innings Pitched, 6.935 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 194 hits, 44 walks, 183 strikeouts

After
32 starts, 221.2 Innings Pitched, 6.925 Innings Pitcher per Game Started, 204 hits, 53 walks, 171 strikeouts

As you can see, the numbers are quite similar. He gained stamina and was able to start an extra game each season after the surgery, but he allowed a few more hits and walks as well as struck out a few less. Overall, the three years before the surgery were slightly better. However, the decrease in effectiveness after the surgery could also be attributed to the fact that he was 34-36 years old when he pitched after the surgery and 29-32 years old before the surgery. A starting pitcher's prime is usually from the age 27 until 32. With that in mind, I don't believe that the surgery affected his performance at all.

The next player I am going to analyze is Tim Hudson from the Atlanta Braves. Hudson and Chris Carpenter both represent the best examples of Tommy John victims because of the overwhelming amount of data we have on them. They both played 9 full or reasonably full seasons before having surgery. Unlike Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson only missed one season and a third of another season as opposed to two seasons. Also unlike Carpenter, Hudson has only pitched two seasons since the surgery; so I will show you the averages over the two years prior to the surgery and after the surgery.

Before
34.5 Games Started, 221.1 Innings Pitched, 6.35 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 228 hits, 66 walks, 136 strikeouts
After
33.5 GS, 222. IP, 6.6 IP/GS, 189 hits, 65 walks, 148 strikeouts

Keep in mind that like Carpenter, Hudson was also toward the end of his career after the surgery. He was just 12 days from turning 33 when he had the surgery. He didn't start his next season until he was 34 and only 4 months away from turning 35. This is about the age that most starting pitchers retire, but the good and more durable ones will play for up to three more seasons an occasionally more. After considering this, look at the stats again. It is even more impressive that his numbers improved because he was getting farther away from his prime years and closer to retirement. Even though he averaged pitching one less game per year after the surgery, he pitched deeper into games resulting in a higher innings pitched per games started. His hits allowed significantly dropped and his strikeouts increased a bit. However, overall his numbers are nearly the same, with just a slight improvement.

The third and final pitcher I am going to analyze is Shaun Marcum who plays for the Milwaukee Brewers. After looking at two pitchers that were already well established big leaguers before the surgery, I decided to look at a pitcher who had less experience. Shaun Marcum was in the big leagues for three full seasons before he had Tommy John surgery at age 27. Each season he was used less and less as a relief pitcher which means he was becoming more of an established starting pitcher. In those three years before the surgery, he was used as a starting pitcher for the majority (76%) of his appearances. By the third season, he was strictly used as a starter. However, this season was cut short by approximately 22% of the season to go due to arm injury and later Tommy John surgery. Here are the numbers comparison from before he had Tommy John and after.

Before
25 Games Started, 159 Innings Pitched, 5.95 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 137 hits, 49 walks, 122 strikeouts

After
32 Games Started, 198 Innings Pitched, 6.19 Innings Pitcher per Game Started, 178 hits, 50 walks, 161 strikeouts

As you can see for the most part, his post-Tommy John surgery numbers are better than his prior-surgery numbers. He pitched deeper into games, walked fewer batters after the surgery. Keep in mind that his numbers before the surgery were indicating that he was getting better every year. So don't come to the conclusion that the surgery made him better pitcher. Although his numbers were better after Tommy John surgery, it can be inferred that the surgery simply did not stop his progression as a starting pitcher.

I have given three examples of pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery. Two of them had incredible amount of data to draw conclusions from, and the third one was on the opposite side of his career as the other two. The statistics of the first example, Carpenter, were slightly worse after the surgery, but that slight decrease in effectiveness can be attributed to his aging well past his prime. The second example, Hudson, improved after his surgery even though he was also well past his prime. The third example, Marcum, had better seasons after the surgery as he was entering his prime than when he was first developing before the surgery. In all three cases, the changes in statistics were either minor changes, or predictable development. With all of these results, I think I can conclude with great certainty that having Tommy John surgery does significantly decrease the performance of a pitcher.