Monday, April 9, 2012

Player Profile

Thanks to a three hour car ride (one way) for Easter weekend, I have plenty of time to express my thoughts on the Cardinals. Let's go through each position and look at each player.

Catcher:
Yadier Molina: After signing a mega deal in the offseason, Yadi is showing his worth early in the season. He set a career high in home runs (and RBI's) last season, and he's already homered once in the two games so far. His defense has been superb, although he did allow a batter to reach on a dropped third strike. Outside of statistics, Yadi looks like he's in great shape. I know it's not saying much, but watching him running the bases, he is running faster than ever before. I'm expecting great things from the Puerto Rican.

First base:
Lance Berkman: The Big Puma had a great year last season to defy critics who said that his career was over. And he's out to prove himself again this year. Through the first two games, Berkman is hitting a solid .333 with one RBI and two doubles. One of the biggest reasons for Berkman's success last year was how healthy and in shape he was. You could tell he was in great shape after his first at-bat of the year when he stretched a single into a double, thanks to great hustle and some fancy sliding. Of course, one of the Puma's strengths is getting on base. In each of the first two games, he's walked twice. That's a .600 on-base percentage, folks.

Second base:
Daniel Descalso: Take note that I put Descalso ahead of Tyler Greene on the second base list. Through the first two games, Double D has had 9 plate appearances. Comparatively, Tyler Greene has had zero. Considered the under bird to win the second base job at the beginning of spring training, Descalso has been rewarded for his hard work with the first two starts of the season. He's hitting the ball well, and as always, his defense is amazing. I think Descalso has better knowledge of baseball and different situations than Tyler Greene, which will help him earn his spot in the lineup during high pressure situations. That's the reason why Nick Punto started at second base during the World Series.

Tyler Greene: Well, it's hard to comment on a player who hasn't seen any action yet. Still, there is plenty to discuss when it comes to the former first round draft pick. No one is doubting TG's potential. He's had occasional power in the minor leagues which could lead to double digit home runs in the majors if he ever gets the chance and adjusts to major league pitching. Tyler is also a great base stealer. For some players (such as Jon Jay and Colby Rasmus), there speed doesn't translate in stolen bases. That's not the case for Greene who has 16 career stolen bases and no caught stealing. And with Matheny who is encouraging stealing bases this season behind the helm, Greene could really shine in he can get on base. He has a .219 career batting average in the majors (.270 in minors).

Shortstop:
Rafael Furcal: Furcal struggled for much of spring training, but he kicked it in gear once the games (and stats) count. Through the first two games, he has a .600 batting average, 2 RBI's and 2 stolen bases. The Cardinals need Furcal to be a leadoff hitter for them this year. They need guys to get on ahead of the big boppers and since Beltran is hitting second, Furcal's ability to consistently get on base is critical to the Cardinals' success.

Third base:
David Freese: After becoming a postseason legend, David Freese is out to prove that he wasn't a 18 game wonder. So far he's hitting a whopping .500 with 5 RBI's and one home run. If he can keep that up for the rest of the season, he will hit 81 home runs and drive in 530 runs…. More realistically, Freese should be aiming for the .300/25/100 (average/homers/RBI's) mark. He should also be trying to reach 150 games played for once in his career. Through the first two games, pitchers have shown that they would rather pitch to Freese with runners on first and second than Berkman with a runner on second. This will give Freese a lot of RBI opportunities during the season.

Matt Carpenter: Carpenter didn't make the team because they needed a backup third baseman (Greene and Descalso can play third), he made the big league club for the first time because he can hit. He proved that in his first at-bat when he doubled into right center to drive in two runs. If Freese goes down with another injury, the Cardinals should be in good hands with the newest Carp.

Outfield:
Matt Holliday: The simple truth is that if Holliday is healthy, he will produce. He hasn't quite had his swing back to start the season (striking out four times through two games), but there is no need to worry. He should be a lock for a .300/25/100 mark.

Jon Jay: Through the first two games, Jay's defense has been great. If he keeps it up, he could win a Gold Glove some day. Offensively, Jay makes contact and has occasional power. Look for him to hit just over .300 with 10-15 homers.

Carlos Beltran: Beltran has come out of the gates racking in his first two games as a Cardinal. He's got a .444 batting average with a home run, RBI, stolen base, and 3 runs scored. If he remains in the two hole for much of the year, he could wind up with close to 100 runs scored. Having his .400 career on-base percentage in front of Holliday, Berkman, and Freese will bring in a lot of runs over the course of 162 games.

Eric Komatsu: A Rule 5 draft pick Washington, Komatsu made the big league club knowing that if he didn't he would be sent back to Washington. I saw Komatsu start in a spring training game this spring and after watching him get his first big league hit, I can say I'm surprised Washington didn't protect the former first round draft pick. He has a lot of skill that I think could get him a lot of at-bats for the Cardinals this year.

Shane Robinson: The Cardinals have been wanting a right handed hitting center fielder to back up their lefties (Jay and Schumaker). This is why Robinson was able to make the club out of spring training for the first time in his career He is a great defensive player and has good speed. However, he's not much of a power hitter, but he can occasionally send one to the wall.


Starting Pitchers:
Adam Wainwright: Obviously a 0-6 loss to the Brewers was not the way Wainwright wanted to start the season after going undefeated in Spring Training. However, I still believe that Wainwright will have an outstanding year, despite concerns about his health. His innings pitched probably won't be north of 200, but the innings he does pitch he will pitch well.

Jaime Garcia: If you just looked at the box score for his first start, you'd think he pitched well. However, if you watched him pitch, you would know that he was skating on thin ice for the majority of the game. He had no control of his pitches, leaving them many up in the strike zone, but he was fortunate not to be crushed. However, this is the kind of start that aces give you; even when they don't have their stuff working, they still go out there and give you a quality start.

Kyle Lohse: A lot of Cardinal fans don't like Lohse because for the first two years of his four year 41 million dollar contract, he spent the majority of the seasons on the disabled list and when he was pitching he was pitching poorly. Another reason for fans' dislike of him is that he tends to have poor body language when things start to go bad. However, personal biases aside, Lohse is a lot better pitcher than many people give him credit for, when healthy that is. In the past two seasons, he has allowed 2 stolen bases. He is also one of the league leaders for fewest pitches per inning. His Opening Day start was a great example of him getting on a role and mowing the offense down quickly.

Jake Westbrook: After probably his worst season in the majors, Westbrook seems primed to have a bounce back season. He reported to camp in great shape (20 pounds lighter) and has had a terrific spring. His great spring can also be attributed to the slight change in his windup as he adjusted more towards the delivery of 2010 which was different in 2011. I am expecting a great year from Westbrook this season.

Lance Lynn: A lot of fans probably just know Lance Lynn from his great work out of the bullpen during their historic run to win the championship. What they might not know is that Lynn was slated as a future top-of-the-rotation starter during his minor league days. He has a full four pitch arsenal (fastball, curveball, slider, change up) and he is a durable starter. He could be right along with Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller as the team's aces in 3 years. Lynn could make a case to stay in the rotation once Carpenter comes back from rehab.

Relief Pitchers:
J.C. Romero: Romero is a step up from most of the lefty reliever in the past (Reyes, Villone), but he can struggle at times. He probably won't pitch against righties during high pressure situations which is fine because of the depth of their righty relievers.

Marc Rzepczynski: I was very impressed with Scrabble once he came over from north of the border. I think he's been the best lefty reliever for the Cardinals in the past decade, excluding Trever Miller's 2009 campaign. Mozeliak can invasion using him as a starter if necessary, but I think he is too valuable of a tool in the bullpen to be put into the rotation.

Mitchell Boggs: Boggs is a different pitcher than the young hard throwing starter that struggled to get through five innings. As a reliever, he has boosted velocity on his fastball and has added sharper movement to his slider. I still have faith that Boggs can absolutely dominate hitters on a consistent basis. I think that when the new manager and pitching coach that he will give himself a clean slate to start with.

Kyle McClellan: There were trade rumors during the offseason that McClellan could be dealt to make some room on the payroll for Roy Oswalt. However, a deal couldn't be made and the Cardinals have the experienced righty for another year. In 2010, McClellan was one of the most dominate right-handed relievers. However, in 2011 he took a step backward as he became a full time starter. I think it was a great move to not pursuing the overpriced Oswalt and instead keeping a valuable reliever.

Fernando Salas: Salas was the closer for the majority of the 2011 season, but lost it to Motte in September. While he was effective as a closer, I don't feel that he's cut out for that role. Salas has three quality pitches (2 seam fastball, slurve, and circle change), but he doesn't the ability to dominate pitch. He lacks the ability to mow down hitters. Motte, Sanchez, and Boggs can all completely dominate an at-bat. Thus, I think Salas is more cut out for the eight inning role instead of the ninth.

Jason Motte: Motte has really evolved as a pitcher since 2009. When he first came up, he just threw it as hard as he could without concern of where it ended up. That got him a lot of strikeouts, but a lot of walks and home runs as well. In 2010, he changed from throwing a straight four seam to throwing three miles per hour slower but with two seam action. That brought his walk and home run rate down, but it also brought down his strikeout rate. In 2011, he went back to the four seam fastball, but he located it very well and had a high strikeout rate with few walks and home runs. He should run away with the closer job this season.

Even though these players aren't on the major league roster, they still deserve a look at.
First base:
Matt Adams: You may not have heard of this young lefty, but you will be as inches closer to St. Louis. Adams was not a big name when he was drafted (in the 9th round), but then again, neither was Albert. In his 2 seasons in the minors, Adams has a better than .900 OPS. Any player with a .900 OPS is a lock for an All Star selection. Think of him as a slimmer Prince Fielder. He has tremendous power, but we don't know if his .300 batting average will hold up against major league pitching. Matt Adams is the reason that I believe that letting Albert sign with the Angels was a smart move.

Starting Pitcher:
Shelby Miller: I probably won't tell you anything that you don't already know about Shelby. A former first round has flown through the system with success that spells "future ace". Being drafted in the first round is the first of many steps to being a super star. The next step is to be successful and get better in the minor leagues. Miller has definitely done that. He will start the season at Triple-A Memphis, and will likely make his debut sometime this year, and it will not be out of the bullpen.

Relief Pitcher:
Eduardo Sanchez: Sanchez was lights out with a towel under the door when he first came up to the bigs. He had a well over 15 K/9 after the first two weeks in the majors. That slowed down, but he is still a very effective reliever. Think of him as a young K-Rod with hopefully a better control of his emotions and personality.

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