Tommy John surgery

I wrote this argument for my writing class at college and thought it would ease your mind about Wainwright's situation.

Today I am going to prove to you that the performance of pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery is affected very little by it. The surgery was first done on Tommy John in 1974. He was a starting pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers. When pitchers hear that they are going to need to have Tommy John surgery, they get the same feeling like when a person first hears that they have cancer. Jake Westbrook of the St. Louis Cardinals said as of the surgery, "(After rehabbing for 15 months) I know full well that rehab isn't only a physically exhausting process, but it's also a mentally exhausting one."

The first player that I'm going to analyze is Chris Carpenter, also of the St. Louis Cardinals. Carpenter played 9 seasons before he had Tommy John surgery. In that time he established himself as a great pitcher. He earned the Cy Young award (given to the best pitcher in each league) the year before he had the surgery. He was almost 32 when he had the surgery. Carpenter was out of the game for almost two full years after having Tommy John surgery. Here are the average stats of the three seasons before he had Tommy John surgery compared to the average of the three seasons after the surgery.

Before
31 starts, 215 Innings Pitched, 6.935 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 194 hits, 44 walks, 183 strikeouts

After
32 starts, 221.2 Innings Pitched, 6.925 Innings Pitcher per Game Started, 204 hits, 53 walks, 171 strikeouts

As you can see, the numbers are quite similar. He gained stamina and was able to start an extra game each season after the surgery, but he allowed a few more hits and walks as well as struck out a few less. Overall, the three years before the surgery were slightly better. However, the decrease in effectiveness after the surgery could also be attributed to the fact that he was 34-36 years old when he pitched after the surgery and 29-32 years old before the surgery. A starting pitcher's prime is usually from the age 27 until 32. With that in mind, I don't believe that the surgery affected his performance at all.

The next player I am going to analyze is Tim Hudson from the Atlanta Braves. Hudson and Chris Carpenter both represent the best examples of Tommy John victims because of the overwhelming amount of data we have on them. They both played 9 full or reasonably full seasons before having surgery. Unlike Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson only missed one season and a third of another season as opposed to two seasons. Also unlike Carpenter, Hudson has only pitched two seasons since the surgery; so I will show you the averages over the two years prior to the surgery and after the surgery.

Before
34.5 Games Started, 221.1 Innings Pitched, 6.35 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 228 hits, 66 walks, 136 strikeouts
After
33.5 GS, 222. IP, 6.6 IP/GS, 189 hits, 65 walks, 148 strikeouts

Keep in mind that like Carpenter, Hudson was also toward the end of his career after the surgery. He was just 12 days from turning 33 when he had the surgery. He didn't start his next season until he was 34 and only 4 months away from turning 35. This is about the age that most starting pitchers retire, but the good and more durable ones will play for up to three more seasons an occasionally more. After considering this, look at the stats again. It is even more impressive that his numbers improved because he was getting farther away from his prime years and closer to retirement. Even though he averaged pitching one less game per year after the surgery, he pitched deeper into games resulting in a higher innings pitched per games started. His hits allowed significantly dropped and his strikeouts increased a bit. However, overall his numbers are nearly the same, with just a slight improvement.

The third and final pitcher I am going to analyze is Shaun Marcum who plays for the Milwaukee Brewers. After looking at two pitchers that were already well established big leaguers before the surgery, I decided to look at a pitcher who had less experience. Shaun Marcum was in the big leagues for three full seasons before he had Tommy John surgery at age 27. Each season he was used less and less as a relief pitcher which means he was becoming more of an established starting pitcher. In those three years before the surgery, he was used as a starting pitcher for the majority (76%) of his appearances. By the third season, he was strictly used as a starter. However, this season was cut short by approximately 22% of the season to go due to arm injury and later Tommy John surgery. Here are the numbers comparison from before he had Tommy John and after.

Before
25 Games Started, 159 Innings Pitched, 5.95 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 137 hits, 49 walks, 122 strikeouts

After
32 Games Started, 198 Innings Pitched, 6.19 Innings Pitcher per Game Started, 178 hits, 50 walks, 161 strikeouts

As you can see for the most part, his post-Tommy John surgery numbers are better than his prior-surgery numbers. He pitched deeper into games, walked fewer batters after the surgery. Keep in mind that his numbers before the surgery were indicating that he was getting better every year. So don't come to the conclusion that the surgery made him better pitcher. Although his numbers were better after Tommy John surgery, it can be inferred that the surgery simply did not stop his progression as a starting pitcher.

I have given three examples of pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery. Two of them had incredible amount of data to draw conclusions from, and the third one was on the opposite side of his career as the other two. The statistics of the first example, Carpenter, were slightly worse after the surgery, but that slight decrease in effectiveness can be attributed to his aging well past his prime. The second example, Hudson, improved after his surgery even though he was also well past his prime. The third example, Marcum, had better seasons after the surgery as he was entering his prime than when he was first developing before the surgery. In all three cases, the changes in statistics were either minor changes, or predictable development. With all of these results, I think I can conclude with great certainty that having Tommy John surgery does significantly decrease the performance of a pitcher.