Tyler Greene vs. Daniel Descalso

This was one of the biggest questions going into the spring, and it could continue into the regular season. The battle for the second base job was Tyler Greene's to lose entering into the spring. However, he hasn't been overly impressive and Descalso has had a solid spring. There are pro's and con's to each player. So let's take a look at them.

Tyler Greene
Primary position: Shortstop
Age: 28
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Strengths: Legitimate major league base stealer (16 for 16 in ML career)
Power potential (16 minor league homers per 450 at-bats)
Defense (he can make the spectacular plays, but he will also make errors)

Weaknesses: Batting average (his .270 career minor league average hasn't translated to the majors)
Track record (he has proven he has potential in the minors, but he hasn't done squat in the majors)

Daniel Descalso
Primary position: Third Base
Age: 25
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Strengths: Defense (he was ranked third in Gold Glove in '11 even though he only played 66 games at third)
Clutch hitter (.345 average in Late/Close games, half of his RBI's came with 2 outs)
Track Record (hit .298 after his first two months in the big leagues)

Weaknesses: What you see it what you get (he's not going to hit homers or steal bases)
Second half drop (2 RBI's in 76 at-bats in August and September; 11 RBI's in 85 at-bats in May)


My take: Tyler Greene obviously has a higher ceiling than Daniel Descalso. I think that Greene could hit 15-20 home runs and swipe 25-35 bases if he ever reaches his prime. Descalso, on the other hand, is a safer option because he remained on the major league roster the entire 162 game season. However, I feel that Descalso is most valuable as a utility player and late game replacement (whether it be on defense of Freese or as a pinch hitter in a clutch situation). With that being said, I would give the bulk of the at-bats to Tyler Greene. If he doesn't produce however, I wouldn't hesitate to let Descalso take over.

9-6 Win over Boston

In day 1 of my vacation in Florida, I had the pleasure of attending my first Spring Training game. It was an action filled game. It started off with entering a great facility in the Red Sox's brand new stadium, JetBlue II. It lived up to the hype given by former Cardinals beat writer Matthew Leach after his visit earlier this spring.

Now time for the action. The Cardinals Minor League Hitter of the Year, Matt Adams, put on a show during batting practice. Every ball he hit was a double into the gap. No joke. That guy can rake the ball. I'm starting to see that not signing Albert Pujols to a 10 year deal was a good idea. It would kinda blocked a future MVP candidate. Adams should be the Cards starting first baseman in 2013, assuming that Berkman retires after this season.

Pitching wise, Lohse threw a solid 3 innings. His box score lines will be misleading because of McDonalds's one swing that brought in two of the three runs that were scored that inning. J.C. Romero and Marc Rzepczynski both had rough outings. Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan both had their stuff working though.

Throughout the lineup, no one had a great offensive game, but with timely hitting they produced 9 runs. A third of those came Shane Robinson's pinch hit, bases loaded triple. The outfielders were playing pretty shallow, but that came back to haunt them as Robinson plugged one into center field. It hit off the base of the 375 feet sign on the mini Green Monster.

Earlier in the game, there was a 20 minute rain delay with Matt Adams at the plate. The count was 1-0 when it was called. After play resumed, the same pitcher came out and threw another ball. I had a feeling that Adams was going to put a charge into a pitch after the pitcher had been still for 20 minutes. On the next pitch, my intuition was proven correct as Adams cranked a solo homer to right field. The ball flew approximately 390 feet. It was a no-doubter right after the crack of the bat. Adams later had a RBI single on a sharp grounder past the first baseman.

The Cardinals played solid defense, turning two double plays. Outside of Freeman's three walks, they pitched solidly too. Their pinch hitters (Shane Robinson and Oscar Tavares) were 2-2 with 2 runs and 4 RBI's. They did the little things right and came out on top. The Red Sox, on the other hand, had plenty of blunders. Bard overthrew second on a pickoff attempt, former Redbird Nick Punto was in the way of Matt Carpenter during Komatsu's hit 'n run RBI double in the second inning, Youkilis and Punto both missed ground balls that could have been made but were scored as hits.

Long story short, I liked what I saw from the Cardinals today. Going to watch the Twins take on the Orioles tomorrow. On Saturday, we'll see the Twins again. To conclude the vacation, we're going to watch the Cardinals play the revamped Miami Marlins on Sunday. More coverage tomorrow.

Tommy John surgery

I wrote this argument for my writing class at college and thought it would ease your mind about Wainwright's situation.

Today I am going to prove to you that the performance of pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery is affected very little by it. The surgery was first done on Tommy John in 1974. He was a starting pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers. When pitchers hear that they are going to need to have Tommy John surgery, they get the same feeling like when a person first hears that they have cancer. Jake Westbrook of the St. Louis Cardinals said as of the surgery, "(After rehabbing for 15 months) I know full well that rehab isn't only a physically exhausting process, but it's also a mentally exhausting one."

The first player that I'm going to analyze is Chris Carpenter, also of the St. Louis Cardinals. Carpenter played 9 seasons before he had Tommy John surgery. In that time he established himself as a great pitcher. He earned the Cy Young award (given to the best pitcher in each league) the year before he had the surgery. He was almost 32 when he had the surgery. Carpenter was out of the game for almost two full years after having Tommy John surgery. Here are the average stats of the three seasons before he had Tommy John surgery compared to the average of the three seasons after the surgery.

Before
31 starts, 215 Innings Pitched, 6.935 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 194 hits, 44 walks, 183 strikeouts

After
32 starts, 221.2 Innings Pitched, 6.925 Innings Pitcher per Game Started, 204 hits, 53 walks, 171 strikeouts

As you can see, the numbers are quite similar. He gained stamina and was able to start an extra game each season after the surgery, but he allowed a few more hits and walks as well as struck out a few less. Overall, the three years before the surgery were slightly better. However, the decrease in effectiveness after the surgery could also be attributed to the fact that he was 34-36 years old when he pitched after the surgery and 29-32 years old before the surgery. A starting pitcher's prime is usually from the age 27 until 32. With that in mind, I don't believe that the surgery affected his performance at all.

The next player I am going to analyze is Tim Hudson from the Atlanta Braves. Hudson and Chris Carpenter both represent the best examples of Tommy John victims because of the overwhelming amount of data we have on them. They both played 9 full or reasonably full seasons before having surgery. Unlike Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson only missed one season and a third of another season as opposed to two seasons. Also unlike Carpenter, Hudson has only pitched two seasons since the surgery; so I will show you the averages over the two years prior to the surgery and after the surgery.

Before
34.5 Games Started, 221.1 Innings Pitched, 6.35 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 228 hits, 66 walks, 136 strikeouts
After
33.5 GS, 222. IP, 6.6 IP/GS, 189 hits, 65 walks, 148 strikeouts

Keep in mind that like Carpenter, Hudson was also toward the end of his career after the surgery. He was just 12 days from turning 33 when he had the surgery. He didn't start his next season until he was 34 and only 4 months away from turning 35. This is about the age that most starting pitchers retire, but the good and more durable ones will play for up to three more seasons an occasionally more. After considering this, look at the stats again. It is even more impressive that his numbers improved because he was getting farther away from his prime years and closer to retirement. Even though he averaged pitching one less game per year after the surgery, he pitched deeper into games resulting in a higher innings pitched per games started. His hits allowed significantly dropped and his strikeouts increased a bit. However, overall his numbers are nearly the same, with just a slight improvement.

The third and final pitcher I am going to analyze is Shaun Marcum who plays for the Milwaukee Brewers. After looking at two pitchers that were already well established big leaguers before the surgery, I decided to look at a pitcher who had less experience. Shaun Marcum was in the big leagues for three full seasons before he had Tommy John surgery at age 27. Each season he was used less and less as a relief pitcher which means he was becoming more of an established starting pitcher. In those three years before the surgery, he was used as a starting pitcher for the majority (76%) of his appearances. By the third season, he was strictly used as a starter. However, this season was cut short by approximately 22% of the season to go due to arm injury and later Tommy John surgery. Here are the numbers comparison from before he had Tommy John and after.

Before
25 Games Started, 159 Innings Pitched, 5.95 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 137 hits, 49 walks, 122 strikeouts

After
32 Games Started, 198 Innings Pitched, 6.19 Innings Pitcher per Game Started, 178 hits, 50 walks, 161 strikeouts

As you can see for the most part, his post-Tommy John surgery numbers are better than his prior-surgery numbers. He pitched deeper into games, walked fewer batters after the surgery. Keep in mind that his numbers before the surgery were indicating that he was getting better every year. So don't come to the conclusion that the surgery made him better pitcher. Although his numbers were better after Tommy John surgery, it can be inferred that the surgery simply did not stop his progression as a starting pitcher.

I have given three examples of pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery. Two of them had incredible amount of data to draw conclusions from, and the third one was on the opposite side of his career as the other two. The statistics of the first example, Carpenter, were slightly worse after the surgery, but that slight decrease in effectiveness can be attributed to his aging well past his prime. The second example, Hudson, improved after his surgery even though he was also well past his prime. The third example, Marcum, had better seasons after the surgery as he was entering his prime than when he was first developing before the surgery. In all three cases, the changes in statistics were either minor changes, or predictable development. With all of these results, I think I can conclude with great certainty that having Tommy John surgery does significantly decrease the performance of a pitcher.

Jaime Garcia

Jaime Garcia has established himself as a great young southpaw. With that in mind, if he wants to become an elite starting pitcher, he needs to have more stamina. He needs to be more than a six inning pitcher if he ever wants a serious shot at the Cy Young, or even an All Star appearance. We have seen him come through and really shine in some of his best starts (2 shutouts last season). In his sophomore season, Jaime G decreased his walk rate from 3.5 BB/9 IP to 2.3. However, his opponents batting average rose from .243 to .273. His WHIP remained the same. His innings pitched per start rose from 5.8 to 6.08. It's not a great increase, and it is still a low number. That is what he needs to change in 2012 to rise to the next level of southpaws. He has a great pitch combination with his cutter that he bears low and in to righties, and his 2 seam fastball that sinks away from the righties. His circle change up is a plus pitch and his curveball can be great but it is a bit inconsistent. He has the tools to be a superstar, but he needs to get to the next level.

Jon Jay

Jon Jay
Jay is one of the more underrated Cardinal younglings since the rise of David Freese and Allen Craig. But I think that he has potential to be a great center fielder. His defense really shined in the second to the last play of the NLCS when he made a spectacular diving play in the warning track. Those are the plays we have come to expect from him. His offense is coming along nicely. He has shown good power that could possibly result in 20 home runs sometime in his career. He slugged higher than Colby Rasmus did with the Cardinals last year. However, so did Nick Punto. He's always been a good average hitter despite his awkward swing. As he progresses as a hitter, he should gain a better knowledge of which pitches are the best ones to swing at. Despite decent speed, he isn't much of a base stealer. Jon Jay is one of those hitters that can either be a great hitter or the next Chris Duncan.

David Freese

Giving a piece of candy to a child that just fell off their bike doesn't always work, but it always helps. Cardinal fans fell off their bike in December when Albert Pujols signed a mega deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Fortunately for them, a new face of the franchise had risen up just two months before. 23 is the new 5 in St. Louis.

After receiving the NLCS MVP award, Freese compiled a World Series that he will never forget- never will Cardinal fans. David not only set a record for the most RBI's in a single postseason, but he also had one of the most dramatic home runs in World Series history. Not to mention a two RBI tripe that saved their season the at-bat before. This is all ancient history for Cardinals fans and David Freese fans across the world.

Cardinal fans are now turning to #23 to provide the game-saving clutch hits and the consistent offense that carries a team out of a slump. While he may be an extremely clutch hitter, his numbers show that he won't produce nearly as much as fans anticipate. If all things go well, I think Freese could top out at a solid .280 average with 20+ home runs and 90 RBIs. Nothing like the .330, 35, 110 numbers that Albert would put up annually.

Freese posted a very good 13.2 at-bats per home run in the postseason last year. In his major league career (regular season only), his at-bats per home run is 40.27. That's quite a difference. Over 550 at-bats, that's the difference between 42 home runs and 14. In his minor league career, his AB/HR is 21.6. That would carry out to be 25 home runs for 550 at-bats. However, he could become a more powerful hitter and hit a little lower average, or he could go for average and drop a little power. I think he will be more of a .280-.290 hitter compared to the nearly .300 career hitter he is now. One stat that worries me is his strikeout rate: 4.3 K's/AB. That's 128 strikeouts folks.

Freese's defense is one attribute that is underrated because of his great offense as well as his backup's Daniel Descalso's superb defense. I have seen Freese make some great defensive plays, and I think he is a Gold Glover in the making. While he is not a five tool player, he does possess the most important two tools- he has great offense and terrific defense. I would not be surprised if he was elected to the All Star Game this year, although there is tough competition with David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, and Hanley Ramirez (all NL East).

Roy Oswalt

The Cardinals have been unofficially trying to sign Roy Oswalt for a few weeks now. But until the Cardinals can find the right suitor for Kyle McClellan and Roy Oswalt raises down his asking price of $10 million for one year, then nothing is going to transpire. Here are some pro's and con's to signing Oswalt.

Pro's: He would obviously be a significant upgrade from Jake Westbrook as the fifth starter, but Roy would probably be the third starter.

Con's: The Cardinals would be letting go of a great versatile pitcher that they have control of for another two years. Westbrook would obviously not be as near a good reliever as McClellan is. For one thing, Westbrook is an innings eater; that's something he can't do as a reliever. He is a ground ball pitcher who doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. McClellan has been a sturdy reliever for three years now. I think that the reason that he wasn't very effective as a reliever last year was the he conditioned himself as a starter ever since Adam went down.

On the other hand, he is very specific about only wanting a one year deal. Which means he will be a free agent next offseason. The same time that Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook are free agents. So if they don't sign him this year, there is a good possibility that they could next season. Lohse and Westbrook combine for make $20 million this year. That is more than enough to sign Oswalt next offseason. Shelby Miller will probably fill the other spot in the rotation.

So, to me, signing him this year isn't worth it. We would have to lose a valuable reliever and our bullpen would be weakened both this year and next year. Stats show that Jake Westbrook should be a lot better than he was last year, So I'm pretty confident he can bounce back this season and have a solid year.