Tommy John surgery

I wrote this argument for my writing class at college and thought it would ease your mind about Wainwright's situation.

Today I am going to prove to you that the performance of pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery is affected very little by it. The surgery was first done on Tommy John in 1974. He was a starting pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers. When pitchers hear that they are going to need to have Tommy John surgery, they get the same feeling like when a person first hears that they have cancer. Jake Westbrook of the St. Louis Cardinals said as of the surgery, "(After rehabbing for 15 months) I know full well that rehab isn't only a physically exhausting process, but it's also a mentally exhausting one."

The first player that I'm going to analyze is Chris Carpenter, also of the St. Louis Cardinals. Carpenter played 9 seasons before he had Tommy John surgery. In that time he established himself as a great pitcher. He earned the Cy Young award (given to the best pitcher in each league) the year before he had the surgery. He was almost 32 when he had the surgery. Carpenter was out of the game for almost two full years after having Tommy John surgery. Here are the average stats of the three seasons before he had Tommy John surgery compared to the average of the three seasons after the surgery.

Before
31 starts, 215 Innings Pitched, 6.935 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 194 hits, 44 walks, 183 strikeouts

After
32 starts, 221.2 Innings Pitched, 6.925 Innings Pitcher per Game Started, 204 hits, 53 walks, 171 strikeouts

As you can see, the numbers are quite similar. He gained stamina and was able to start an extra game each season after the surgery, but he allowed a few more hits and walks as well as struck out a few less. Overall, the three years before the surgery were slightly better. However, the decrease in effectiveness after the surgery could also be attributed to the fact that he was 34-36 years old when he pitched after the surgery and 29-32 years old before the surgery. A starting pitcher's prime is usually from the age 27 until 32. With that in mind, I don't believe that the surgery affected his performance at all.

The next player I am going to analyze is Tim Hudson from the Atlanta Braves. Hudson and Chris Carpenter both represent the best examples of Tommy John victims because of the overwhelming amount of data we have on them. They both played 9 full or reasonably full seasons before having surgery. Unlike Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson only missed one season and a third of another season as opposed to two seasons. Also unlike Carpenter, Hudson has only pitched two seasons since the surgery; so I will show you the averages over the two years prior to the surgery and after the surgery.

Before
34.5 Games Started, 221.1 Innings Pitched, 6.35 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 228 hits, 66 walks, 136 strikeouts
After
33.5 GS, 222. IP, 6.6 IP/GS, 189 hits, 65 walks, 148 strikeouts

Keep in mind that like Carpenter, Hudson was also toward the end of his career after the surgery. He was just 12 days from turning 33 when he had the surgery. He didn't start his next season until he was 34 and only 4 months away from turning 35. This is about the age that most starting pitchers retire, but the good and more durable ones will play for up to three more seasons an occasionally more. After considering this, look at the stats again. It is even more impressive that his numbers improved because he was getting farther away from his prime years and closer to retirement. Even though he averaged pitching one less game per year after the surgery, he pitched deeper into games resulting in a higher innings pitched per games started. His hits allowed significantly dropped and his strikeouts increased a bit. However, overall his numbers are nearly the same, with just a slight improvement.

The third and final pitcher I am going to analyze is Shaun Marcum who plays for the Milwaukee Brewers. After looking at two pitchers that were already well established big leaguers before the surgery, I decided to look at a pitcher who had less experience. Shaun Marcum was in the big leagues for three full seasons before he had Tommy John surgery at age 27. Each season he was used less and less as a relief pitcher which means he was becoming more of an established starting pitcher. In those three years before the surgery, he was used as a starting pitcher for the majority (76%) of his appearances. By the third season, he was strictly used as a starter. However, this season was cut short by approximately 22% of the season to go due to arm injury and later Tommy John surgery. Here are the numbers comparison from before he had Tommy John and after.

Before
25 Games Started, 159 Innings Pitched, 5.95 Innings Pitched per Game Started, 137 hits, 49 walks, 122 strikeouts

After
32 Games Started, 198 Innings Pitched, 6.19 Innings Pitcher per Game Started, 178 hits, 50 walks, 161 strikeouts

As you can see for the most part, his post-Tommy John surgery numbers are better than his prior-surgery numbers. He pitched deeper into games, walked fewer batters after the surgery. Keep in mind that his numbers before the surgery were indicating that he was getting better every year. So don't come to the conclusion that the surgery made him better pitcher. Although his numbers were better after Tommy John surgery, it can be inferred that the surgery simply did not stop his progression as a starting pitcher.

I have given three examples of pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery. Two of them had incredible amount of data to draw conclusions from, and the third one was on the opposite side of his career as the other two. The statistics of the first example, Carpenter, were slightly worse after the surgery, but that slight decrease in effectiveness can be attributed to his aging well past his prime. The second example, Hudson, improved after his surgery even though he was also well past his prime. The third example, Marcum, had better seasons after the surgery as he was entering his prime than when he was first developing before the surgery. In all three cases, the changes in statistics were either minor changes, or predictable development. With all of these results, I think I can conclude with great certainty that having Tommy John surgery does significantly decrease the performance of a pitcher.

Jaime Garcia

Jaime Garcia has established himself as a great young southpaw. With that in mind, if he wants to become an elite starting pitcher, he needs to have more stamina. He needs to be more than a six inning pitcher if he ever wants a serious shot at the Cy Young, or even an All Star appearance. We have seen him come through and really shine in some of his best starts (2 shutouts last season). In his sophomore season, Jaime G decreased his walk rate from 3.5 BB/9 IP to 2.3. However, his opponents batting average rose from .243 to .273. His WHIP remained the same. His innings pitched per start rose from 5.8 to 6.08. It's not a great increase, and it is still a low number. That is what he needs to change in 2012 to rise to the next level of southpaws. He has a great pitch combination with his cutter that he bears low and in to righties, and his 2 seam fastball that sinks away from the righties. His circle change up is a plus pitch and his curveball can be great but it is a bit inconsistent. He has the tools to be a superstar, but he needs to get to the next level.

Jon Jay

Jon Jay
Jay is one of the more underrated Cardinal younglings since the rise of David Freese and Allen Craig. But I think that he has potential to be a great center fielder. His defense really shined in the second to the last play of the NLCS when he made a spectacular diving play in the warning track. Those are the plays we have come to expect from him. His offense is coming along nicely. He has shown good power that could possibly result in 20 home runs sometime in his career. He slugged higher than Colby Rasmus did with the Cardinals last year. However, so did Nick Punto. He's always been a good average hitter despite his awkward swing. As he progresses as a hitter, he should gain a better knowledge of which pitches are the best ones to swing at. Despite decent speed, he isn't much of a base stealer. Jon Jay is one of those hitters that can either be a great hitter or the next Chris Duncan.

David Freese

Giving a piece of candy to a child that just fell off their bike doesn't always work, but it always helps. Cardinal fans fell off their bike in December when Albert Pujols signed a mega deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Fortunately for them, a new face of the franchise had risen up just two months before. 23 is the new 5 in St. Louis.

After receiving the NLCS MVP award, Freese compiled a World Series that he will never forget- never will Cardinal fans. David not only set a record for the most RBI's in a single postseason, but he also had one of the most dramatic home runs in World Series history. Not to mention a two RBI tripe that saved their season the at-bat before. This is all ancient history for Cardinals fans and David Freese fans across the world.

Cardinal fans are now turning to #23 to provide the game-saving clutch hits and the consistent offense that carries a team out of a slump. While he may be an extremely clutch hitter, his numbers show that he won't produce nearly as much as fans anticipate. If all things go well, I think Freese could top out at a solid .280 average with 20+ home runs and 90 RBIs. Nothing like the .330, 35, 110 numbers that Albert would put up annually.

Freese posted a very good 13.2 at-bats per home run in the postseason last year. In his major league career (regular season only), his at-bats per home run is 40.27. That's quite a difference. Over 550 at-bats, that's the difference between 42 home runs and 14. In his minor league career, his AB/HR is 21.6. That would carry out to be 25 home runs for 550 at-bats. However, he could become a more powerful hitter and hit a little lower average, or he could go for average and drop a little power. I think he will be more of a .280-.290 hitter compared to the nearly .300 career hitter he is now. One stat that worries me is his strikeout rate: 4.3 K's/AB. That's 128 strikeouts folks.

Freese's defense is one attribute that is underrated because of his great offense as well as his backup's Daniel Descalso's superb defense. I have seen Freese make some great defensive plays, and I think he is a Gold Glover in the making. While he is not a five tool player, he does possess the most important two tools- he has great offense and terrific defense. I would not be surprised if he was elected to the All Star Game this year, although there is tough competition with David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, and Hanley Ramirez (all NL East).

Roy Oswalt

The Cardinals have been unofficially trying to sign Roy Oswalt for a few weeks now. But until the Cardinals can find the right suitor for Kyle McClellan and Roy Oswalt raises down his asking price of $10 million for one year, then nothing is going to transpire. Here are some pro's and con's to signing Oswalt.

Pro's: He would obviously be a significant upgrade from Jake Westbrook as the fifth starter, but Roy would probably be the third starter.

Con's: The Cardinals would be letting go of a great versatile pitcher that they have control of for another two years. Westbrook would obviously not be as near a good reliever as McClellan is. For one thing, Westbrook is an innings eater; that's something he can't do as a reliever. He is a ground ball pitcher who doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. McClellan has been a sturdy reliever for three years now. I think that the reason that he wasn't very effective as a reliever last year was the he conditioned himself as a starter ever since Adam went down.

On the other hand, he is very specific about only wanting a one year deal. Which means he will be a free agent next offseason. The same time that Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook are free agents. So if they don't sign him this year, there is a good possibility that they could next season. Lohse and Westbrook combine for make $20 million this year. That is more than enough to sign Oswalt next offseason. Shelby Miller will probably fill the other spot in the rotation.

So, to me, signing him this year isn't worth it. We would have to lose a valuable reliever and our bullpen would be weakened both this year and next year. Stats show that Jake Westbrook should be a lot better than he was last year, So I'm pretty confident he can bounce back this season and have a solid year.

The IF's of the 2012 season

As spring training approaches, teams have to look at their roster and plan for the unexpected, plan for the season ending Tommy John surgeries to your ace with a nasty curveball, plan for the midseason broken wrist to your three time MVP. What is the Cardinals plan to bandage up the injuries that are bound to happen in 2012?

IF almost any position player gets hurt, Allen Craig has is covered. Craig can play first base, third base, left field, and right field all on a full time basis. So if Lance Berkman, David Freese, Matt Holliday, or Carlos Beltran are hurt for a significant period of time or just for a game, Allen can fill in until they return. Allen can also play center field as well as second base. Unfortunately, not on a consistent basis. He can probably fill in for a game every now or then, but if Jay or who ever wins the second base job are hurt for a significant amount of time, then Matheny would have to turn to another alternative to fill the hole. Fortunately, the Cardinals have three players, Tyler Greene, Daniel Descalso, and Skip Schumaker, who could fill in at second. Carlos Beltran could move from right to center as long as his knees are good enough for the extra running. If Furcal (or Squirrecal) goes down, Tyler Greene and possibly Daniel Descalso could take his place. At catcher, Tony Cruz, Bryan Anderson, or Steve Hill could take Yadi's spot for awhile. But if he's out for more than a month, then MO might have to look to bring in an veteran catcher because none of those three catchers have significant major league experience.

IF a starter goes down, Kyle McClellan, Lance Lynn, and Marc Rzepczynski would be the three contenders for the spot. However, there are rumors that MO is shopping McClellan to clear cap space for Roy Oswalt. If that were to come to pass, then most likely Jake Westbrook would be sent to the bullpen.

IF closer Jason Motte goes down, Fernando Salas would probably be the one to take over. He would be followed by Eduardo Sanchez, Mitchell Boggs, and then maybe Skip Schumaker who led the major leagues in K/9 IP last season with an 18 K/9. Let's hope it doesn't get to that.

The beginning of a new era

Albert, Tony, Dave. These are all names you've heard mentioned together ever since Black Thursday (December 8th). Just because we lost three future Hall of Famers (Duncan should be in the HOF), doesn't mean that St. Louis can't bring it all home once again in 2012. La Russa and Duncan have been the Cardinals classic combo since '96. And Albert has been the one to save the day since he arrived at Spring Training in 2001. Three icons. Gone as all of us die hards were still celebrating a fantastic World Series run. Yet, there is still hope and perhaps optimism for 2012.

Reason number one for why you should be excited for 2012. Adam Wainwright. What a year for this guy to miss. And yet, what a year to just be able to watch from the dugout. You can be sure that Adam is rearing to get his arm going for this season. Let's hope that he still has the same curveball that struck out now teammate Carlos Beltran back in 2006. While I expect Waino to lead the team in pitching this year, Jaime Garcia challenged him in one thing last year, the best hitting pitcher. Although stats don't show it, Jaime is a great hitter. He has a great swing, a hitter's swing. After all, you don't hit upper deck shots off of Shaun Marcum by swinging like Jason Motte.

Reason number two! David Freese. Freese has become a fan favorite for life. Not just Cardinal fans, but fans across baseball. Quick factoid: @Dfreese23 has 4,000 more than @Cardinals do. A great fielder, and he is the whole package. All he needs to do is to stay healthy for a solid 140-150 games in 2012, and the Cardinals will go places (and not on vacation in October).

Reason number threeeeeee. Ryan Braun. Whether you took the largest dosage of steroids ever recorded in baseball history or not, thank you. You just put your team out of contention for the playoffs. Perfect timing for the arrival of all of prospects which I will blog about later. However, Cardinal fans, be careful because thy pride comes before thy fall. Don't let Cincincy come out of nowhere to claim the division title.

Reason number four. Torty. Yes, the pet turtle of the guy that had the highest OPS (On-base percentage plus Slugging) versus southpaws last year on the club. His OPS clocked in at 1.000. In the first inning, his OPS was off the charts at 1.244. No one with as many at-bats as Craig did had as high of an OPS. Although 2011 MVP runner up Matt Kemp was one point behind him with almost three times as many AB's. But still, stats don't lie....although sometimes they are misleading. Any way you want to look at it, I think Craig should bat third against lefties. To put Craig's stats from 2011 in an overall perspective, if he had as many at-bats as Albert did last year, he would have finished the season with 32 home runs. Compile that with his .311 batting average and you have an All Star on your team that might not even play ever day. Wow.

Reason number five...... Normally, this would be where I would say something about Albert. But, alas, the past is in the past. And unfortunately Albert is now only apart of our past in St. Louis. So let's talk about something exciting. Which rising prospect is more exciting than Shelby Miller? After all, this guy has a career K/9 IP of 12 in the minor leagues. He had the highest K/9 of all starters in the hitter friendly Texas Grapefruit League. In fact, he was the only starter to have more strikeouts than he did innings pitched. He also had the fewest home runs given up at a mere two. I think Miller should start the year at Double-A Springfield so he can start the year on a good note. But, I think he should be ready for a call up to Memphis after the first month or two. Miller's K/9 plummeted from an unheard of 13.97 K/9 at Single-A to a still impressive 9.3 K/9. That four and a half less strikeouts per nine innings pitched is why I think Shelby should start in Springfield. But don't be surprised if he gets called up in September if not sooner.

Clearly, there is still reason to get ready for the 2012 season with plenty of excitement. Pitchers and catchers report in six days and Opening Day will be here soon too! S go to Jupiter, Florida and support your 2011 World Series Champs for there will be plenty of more good times in 2012.