Many foresaw that the Cardinals would wind up in the playoffs once again, but no one envisioned it would be against the Washington Nationals, who just so happened to have the major's best record. That's right. However, both clubs come into this best of five game series without some of their key players and irreplaceable weaknesses but still with some serious firepower.
The St. Louis Cardinals come into the NLDS with two major advantages-a great offense and playoff experience. The Cardinals scored the were second in the National League in batting average, runs scored, and on-base percentage. In the two years that Mark McGwire has been their hitting coach, they have been the first and second best offensive teams. Because of their tremendous run from nine and half games back at the beginning of September all the way to a World Series championship in Game 7, nobody is taking the Cardinals lightly, nor should they.
The Nationals, on the other hand, were not expected to be in the position that they are in. They were fifth in the National League in runs scored. They also know how to drive the ball out of the park as they drove in the second most home runs in the NL. The Nationals real key is their pitching which sported the league's best ERA even while pitching the most innings.
Each club has very good strengths which is why they are in the postseason. They have both been without some of their integral players for part of the season, but they have both over adversity. Neither of them come to this series with any doubts that they should be the one that gets to have the coveted champagne party while the other team watches with envy. The question is "Which team is more likely to advance to the National League Championship Series?"
Let's start with the visiting team for the first two games, the Washington Nationals. To win a franchise-best 98 games after finishing half a game below .500, they must have a pretty improved squad.
Let's start with their offense, the Nationals were among the league's best offensive clubs thanks to a solid season by a healthy Ryan Zimmerman and the long anticipated breakout years of Adam La Roche, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, and Bryce Harper. The combination of those five shadows the disappointing season by Jason Werth who owns the franchise's biggest contract. Their four infielders combined for 100 home runs, 326 RBI's, and 323 runs scored. That's a pretty lethal infield. Pitching wise, the Nationals had four pitchers with 150+ strikeouts, sub 3.41 ERA's, and 164+ innings pitched. One of their two aces, Gio Gonzalez, has held hitters to a minuscule .206 batting average over 199.1 innings. Their bullpen has been just as solid as their starters. They have three relievers have sub 2.40 ERA's.
That's the Washington Nationals at first glance. Now let's take a quick look at the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Cardinals biggest strength is without a doubt their offense. With 5 players with 20+ home runs, there is no doubt that they know how to score runs in a quick. Freese, who's already a playoff phenomenon, proved that he could stay healthy for a full season. Yadier Molina had an offensive season that was second only to San Francisco's Buster Posey among major league catchers. Carlos Beltran continued upon his success from 2011. Allen Craig continued to climb higher amongst the game's most dangerous hitters, and Matt Holliday once again had another very productive offensive season.
The Cardinals pitching staff was lead by Kyle Lohse and Lance Lynn in the first half, and by Lohse again and Joe Kelly in the second half. Their starters may not have the most impressive statistics, but they can definitely can any offense. Adam Wainwright has a career 0.51 ERA. Chris Carpenter, a postseason beast, owns a 9-2 record with a 3.02 ERA. Kyle Lohse has had the best season of his career and has remained consistent throughout the whole year. After being moved to the bullpen and then back into the rotation, All Star Lance Lynn has been lights out. Their bullpen has been held down by excellent seasons from Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs.
Despite being the best team in baseball in 2012, the Nationals do enter the postseason with a few weaknesses. They have to notable weaknesses. The first of which is the absence of their franchise pitcher Stephen Strasburg. The General Manager of the Nationals decided that it was in the team's best interests to shutdown their ace in August. However, the Nationals continued to play exceptionally without him. Still, his arm is a very key tool that the Nationals do not have this postseason. The other notable weakness is their club's lack of postseason experience. In fact, few players on this team have played for successful teams before this year. Two of their key players that were brought in this past offseason are Adam La Roche and Gio Gonzalez. La Roche spent the majority of his career in Pittsburg who haven't had a winning season in 20 years. Gonzalez played for the Athletics haven't been competitive for many years either. In fact, their only good players with postseason experience at all are Jason Werth, from his time with the Phillies, and Edwin Jackson, from his time with St. Louis last postseason.
That statistic alone is a very important piece of information that is often overlooked. Talent is definitely an important skill, but experience is what makes good teams great teams.
Their bullpen is solid, yes, but it's not untouchable. Their closer, Tyler Clippard, has a high ERA of 3.72 and lost a total of 6 games last season. Against a team that doesn't give up even if they only have one strike left and are down by two runs-twice, that is a good thing to know. The Nationals are also prone to swing and miss quite a bit which is exemplified by having 5 players with over 100 strikeouts (and one with 97). Another major weakness that can be taken advantage of is the Nationals' lack of a solid catcher, offensively or defensively. As a team, they caught only 16.5% of runners stealing. With the Cardinals who like to do sneaky base running, that could definitely be a game changer.
There St. Louis Cardinals have four basic weaknesses that the Nationals can capitalize on. Their manager and much of their coaching staff's lack of major league coaching experience, the Cardinals' poor defense, their bullpen frustrations, and their lack of depth on the bench. Rookie manager Mike Matheny has done a good job of guiding his club into the postseason thus far, but the managing the postseason is a beast of a its own that he will have to find a way through. Their defense has had its up's and down's this season, but there certainly won't be perfection. However, catcher Yadier Molina and center field Jon Jay could be recipients of Gold Gloves this offseason, but overall, they committed the third most errors in the National League. Unlike the Nationals, the Cardinals only have three relievers with a sub 4 ERA. As seen in the NLCS and ALCS last year, bullpens are essential for postseason success. The Cardinals had some much depth in their lineup in 2011, that the had Allen Craig on the bench most games, who was arguably one of their top 3 hitters. Now, their best bat off the bench is Matt Carpenter who is average major league hitter.
The number one reason that the Washington Nationals should win is that they are overall a great team. They were second in home runs, first in ERA, and 3 in fielding percentage in the NL. The reason why the Cardinals should win is that know how to beat the Goliath's of baseball. Adam Wainwright (0.51 ERA), Chris Carpenter (9-2, 3.02 ERA), and Jason Motte (6 saves, 0 blown, 1.82 ERA) have all had phenomenal pitching success in the postseason. Yadier Molina (.302 ave, 24 RBI's, 58% caught stealing), Allen Craig (4 homers, 10 runs, and 9 RBI's in only 41 AB's), Carlos Beltran (.360 ave, 11 homers), and David Freese (.385 ave, 5 homers, 22 RBI's) have all had outstanding offensive postseason success.
There is one player that can have the most affect on this series. That player is Yadier Molina. Yadi can determine the Cardinals' success through so many different ways. The Cardinals wouldn't have won their last two postseasons without his clutch bat. The Cardinals' pitching staff's success wouldn't be what it is without Yadi's excellent pitch calling. And most importantly, Yadi shuts down the running game. For many postseason teams, running mad around the bases is essential to getting an edge on their opponent. With his 58% success rate in throwing runners out in the postseason, Yadi completely takes that advantage away. No other team has made it to the World Series as many times in the past 8 years as Yadi has (3), nor have any of the team's catchers made such a big influence on getting there. Tony La Russa said that Yadier Molina, not Albert Pujols, was the only irreplaceable player on their 2011 team. Here's a key stat you probably didn't know: In the 2011 World Series, the Cardinal with the most RBI's was not David Freese, nor was it Lance Berkman, but rather it was Yadier Molina with 12. Also another stat that shows you how essential Yadi is to the Cardinals' success: The Cardinals have better than 95% of winning a game if Yadi gets at least 2 RBI's. 95 Percent.
Tell me there is another player that can make a bigger influence in this series.
